A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
